For instance, he doesn’t think scientists will be able to create human-like “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) that can perform the same breadth of tasks a person can. But there are a few things that Lee isn’t predicting. Autonomous vehicles will become commonplace in most advanced cities.Household robots will free us from many of the mundane tasks of cleaning and making deliveries.will revolutionize education, providing tailored learning for most children so that human teachers can devote more of their time to instilling skills such as critical thinking. But humans are likely to remain essential in less liquid areas that revolve around negotiation and higher-risk dealmaking, such as venture capital and commercial real estate. will transform many financial fields, including insurance underwriting by taking over most market-based trading in financial instruments such as stocks and commodities. Together, these advances will extend average human lifespans in the developed world by as much as 20 years. will play a key role in the discovery of new medicines, and will also help enable other revolutionary technologies such as robotic surgery and nanorobots that could travel within a patients’ body to deliver treatment. But this will free doctors to spend more time being compassionate caregivers.
will enable precision medicine, with doctors often simply rubber-stamping diagnoses the software makes. “People will get drawn in by the stories to the technologies.”Īmong Lee’s many predictions for 2041 are: “The stories can really vividly describe what 20 years will be like,” he said. Lee told me he had decided to collaborate with a science fiction writer because he thought he would be able to reach a larger audience that way. Last week, I interviewed both Lee and Qiufan about the book. That’s a testament to Qiufan’s contribution: His stories are intriguing, haunting and moving. The book is worth reading, even for those familiar with many of the A.I. The effect is a bit like reading an issue of McKinsey Quarterly and then watching an episode of the dark sci-fi TV series Black Mirror. Each of these is then paired with a short work of speculative fiction by Qiufan, each set in a different country, with narratives centered around the same themes Lee identifies. Rather than presenting a straightforward analysis, the new volume is organized around 10 factual essays, written by Lee, each explaining a different aspect of the technology and its potential impact over the next two decades.
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